By Jonathan McQuarrie
Why do newspapers support the public-opinion polls?…Not only do the modern polls, based on a small, carefully selected cross section, provide more accurate measurements; they can be applied to give continuous and rapid measurements of public opinion at all times. -George Gallup and Saul Forbes Rae, The Pulse of Democracy, 1940, 119.
So called ‘pollsters’ should hang their heads in shame. It’s time to quit whoring out the profession and get out of the media polling game. –Allan Gregg, tweet on 12 June 2014.
What a difference sixty years makes. On the night of the Ontario election, Allan Gregg, the well-known pollster and political pundit, made his displeasure with the inaccurate polling results perfectly clear. Tweets, of course, must always be taken with a several grains of salt. A more measured critique would certainly avoid use of ‘whoring,’ an ugly verb laden with gendered, moralizing judgments, especially following debate over the Conservatives’ highly controversial Bill C-36. However, Gregg has a long track record of being increasingly critical of his former profession. Following Christie Clark’s surprise victory in British Columbia’s 2013 election, Gregg told Canadian Press that the errors “should not happen.” Gregg is not the only commentator who has been sharply critical of polling, but he is the most prolific.
As Daniel J. Robinson’s book The Measure of Democracy: Polling, Market Research, and Public Life 1930-1945 (Toronto, 1999) makes clear, George Gallup and Saul Forbes Rae’s spirited defence of polling as serving public interests needs to be taken with as much salt as Gregg’s tweet. Early pollsters like Gallup’s American Institute of Public Opinion (AIPO) — and its Canadian branch — were soon shaped more by commercial research and committed to market metaphors than by any idealistic commitment to representing the voice of a broad public opinion. In that sense, Gregg’s position is a more honest representation of polling firms and their major function, which is market research. Continue reading